With sportsbook news shifting their focus from football to the NBA, the nightly lines are tighter than ever – including NBA betting totals. The Over/Under number is a tough bet to figure out, which is why playing derivative totals makes so much more sense.
Slicing and dicing the NBA Over/Under is a great way to spot hidden value. Here are some team showing serious leans and trends when it comes to first quarter and first half Over/Under results.
Memphis Grizzlies (first-quarter Overs at home)
The Grizzlies have made some serious improvements on past seasons in 2019-20, currently sitting third in a very challenging Southwest Division. Memphis’ turnaround is fueled by offense, especially when playing at home where the team averages 114 points as a host. And the Grizzlies set the tone for that scoring attack in the opening 12 minutes of action, scoring 30.1 points per first quarter at home.
Couple that with a defense ranked among the bottom quarter in the NBA, and Memphis has been a great Over bet in the opening frame inside FedEx Forum, going 17-11 Over/Under in that situation. The Grizzles give up 28.5 first-quarter points at home to visiting teams but play only one home game between now and Feb 26: taking on Portland on Feb 12.
Boston Celtics (first-half Unders on the road)
Mediocre offense and the league’s second-ranked defense make it easy to see why Boston has held value for Under bettors. The Celtics are 22-29 O/U on the season and 9-15 O/U in the role of visitors, with a 9-14-1 O/U count in the opening half of those road stops.
Boston averages just over 52 points per first half on the road – compared to 56.3 points per opening half at home – while allowing host teams to score just 52.3 points against. Injuries to some key offensive weapons could also be working in favor of this trend with Jalen Brown (20.3 ppg) and Gordon Hayward (17.2 ppg) dealing with respective ailments. The Celtics have a road heavy schedule ahead, with six of their next seven away from Boston.
New York Knicks (first-quarter Unders on the road)
The Knicks stink no matter where they play, but it would seem road games are the worst – more specifically the start of road games. New York is managing to score only 25.9 points per first 12 minutes in the role of visitor while holding host teams to 27.1 points in that same span, all panning out to an 8-18 first-quarter road Over/Under count.
The Knicks are shooting only 46% from the field to open those away games, including an ice-cold 34.5% from beyond the 3-point line. Their 2.2 3-pointers made per first quarter on the road is a league low and sets the tone for woeful shooting outside of Madison Square Garden, with New York amounting just 10.2 3-point buckets per game as a visitor. The Knicks have five of their next seven games on the road, so keep a close eye on those first-quarter betting totals.